Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 82848.692618 87449.436997 92048.021907 96986.056407 102135.186739 107342.790506 113004.269571
2025-01-05 75384.503051 82438.436019 89685.773520 97678.036722 106234.044780 115108.401541 124998.241545
2025-01-12 69616.916385 78308.019191 87433.978961 97709.731069 108936.314183 120807.565427 134287.649563
2025-01-19 65003.694519 74884.362633 85451.354564 97558.172123 111009.464249 125459.896083 142120.631868
2025-01-26 62533.191649 73522.649174 85460.245261 99339.477480 114978.753831 132002.173085 151878.126404
2025-02-02 60462.003898 72403.912597 85558.782919 101054.268216 118733.589714 138201.367432 161182.689597
2025-02-09 58110.474137 70795.257703 84952.143144 101831.265741 121311.837954 142991.847009 168842.975348
2025-02-16 55478.777964 68711.555903 83665.242924 101700.580155 122742.499104 146394.450531 174862.721145
2025-02-23 53484.206071 67262.770069 83013.987400 102213.490649 124837.325732 150499.342507 181651.187728
2025-03-02 51424.341218 65635.585331 82063.058543 102291.136592 126353.917956 153884.377918 187574.582212
2025-03-09 50178.530163 64919.344057 82132.992464 103525.709081 129193.162610 158788.630793 195268.785053
2025-03-16 48110.190644 63118.354932 80828.073909 103046.006022 129937.376269 161189.313406 199993.792186
2025-03-23 47166.545095 62688.014097 81181.383423 104585.283980 133140.160708 166565.385735 208345.761748
2025-03-30 45967.728778 61895.683909 81058.078994 105520.109601 135604.711814 171072.674637 215698.711673
2025-04-06 44421.544370 60608.210271 80273.347406 105597.354843 136991.613231 174268.051810 221477.192165
2025-04-13 42860.509938 59244.617053 79342.205518 105445.488332 138058.804356 177051.703808 226748.594392
2025-04-20 42360.603520 59216.460313 80065.148289 107343.746189 141653.423967 182917.483402 235793.235400
2025-04-27 41862.746845 59165.220794 80739.617215 109169.210989 145157.138888 188686.079107 244753.109753
2025-05-04 40946.797681 58532.576362 80644.118865 109996.128247 147398.116851 192901.554529 251822.443723
2025-05-11 39654.451877 57360.965870 79818.447174 109857.090792 148396.053323 195564.438501 256973.422119
2025-05-18 38720.822782 56636.302134 79544.100937 110402.859531 150245.673933 199281.105327 263441.461077
2025-05-25 37637.971700 55676.855633 78932.912922 110485.477109 151484.523763 202224.412063 268948.522057
2025-06-01 37111.461868 55453.581033 79274.441156 111798.981621 154300.026347 207157.638715 276974.021985